Image Department Meteorology
Meteorology_Home Weather_Server News/Seminars
People
Research
Academics Application Contact_Us

Hawaiian_Weather
US_Mainland_Weather
Tropical_Weather
Satellite_Imagery
Radar_Imagery
Marine
Numerical_Models
LAPS
Forecasts
Observations
Archive
Links Disclaimer
Space
SOEST_Home
University_of_Hawaii_Home

 069 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 131453
 TCDEP1
 
 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062015
 800 AM PDT MON JUL 13 2015
 
 Enrique's convective structure consists of a large band that wraps
 about halfway around the cyclone in its southern semicircle.  Unlike
 the convectively uninhibited nature of Tropical Storm Dolores to its
 east, the showers and thunderstorm activity of Enrique have warmer
 cloud tops and the band is somewhat fragmented.  As the TAFB, SAB,
 and ADT Dvorak classifications remain unchanged at 2.5, the
 intensity for Enrique remains 35 kt.
 
 It appears that Enrique will continue to be convectively challenged
 as the atmosphere in which it is embedded has limited
 thermodynamical instability, and the SSTs should drop below 26.5
 deg C in less than two days.  Additionally, the vertical shear -
 which is low now - is anticipated to increase to 10-15 kt out of the
 south in about two days, as Enrique reaches the western periphery of
 an upper-level high.  The combination of these effects should result
 in gradual weakening of the cyclone after about two days and
 the system becoming a remnant low in about five days.  The official
 intensity forecast is closest to the GHMI dynamical model - the
 model that anticipates the most development - but the NHC prediction
 represents a modest reduction from the forecast issued previously.
 
 Enrique is moving toward the north-northwest at about 9 kt,
 primarily due to a deep-layer ridge to its north.  The dynamical
 models have been unanimously in agreement that Enrique should have
 already taken a west-northwestward turn, which the cyclone has
 stubbornly resisted thus far.  Once such a turn does materialize,
 Enrique should move toward the west-northwest at about the same
 rate of speed for about three to four days.  After that time,
 it is anticipated that Enrique's movement should decrease as the
 steering flow weakens.  The official track forecast is north of the
 consensus at 12 and 24 hours due to the continued right-of-track
 movement currently occurring and then close to the TVCN multi-model
 consensus thereafter.  This NHC prediction is consistently north of
 that from the previous advisory because of the continued
 unanticipated northerly movement of Enrique currently.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  13/1500Z 15.9N 126.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  14/0000Z 16.9N 127.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  14/1200Z 17.6N 128.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
  36H  15/0000Z 17.9N 130.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  15/1200Z 18.3N 132.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
  72H  16/1200Z 19.1N 135.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
  96H  17/1200Z 20.0N 137.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 120H  18/1200Z 19.5N 137.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Landsea
 
 
Return to the Tropical Systems Page for ENRIQUE

Back to main Tropical Weather page




This page is maintained voluntarily by the MKWC and the UHMET faculty, staff, and students.
It was last modified on: , 17 2014 - 1841 UTC
Send comments to: Ryan Lyman