Image Department Meteorology
Meteorology_Home Weather_Server News/Seminars
People
Research
Academics Application Contact_Us

Hawaiian_Weather
US_Mainland_Weather
Tropical_Weather
Satellite_Imagery
Radar_Imagery
Marine
Numerical_Models
LAPS
Forecasts
Observations
Archive
Links Disclaimer
Space
SOEST_Home
University_of_Hawaii_Home

 899 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 130842
 TCDEP1
 
 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062015
 200 AM PDT MON JUL 13 2015
 
 Satellite images indicate that the cyclone has become a bit better
 organized with a growing curved band in the southern semicircle and
 more persistent convection near the center. Given the improved
 satellite presentation and the 35-kt Dvorak estimates, I've elected
 to upgrade the depression to Enrique for this advisory.  The
 tropical storm has a day or two to strengthen before it moves into
 an area of cooler SSTs, drier air, and higher vertical wind shear.
 Most of the guidance support some intensification, so the intensity
 forecast will remain close to the previous one, on the higher side
 of the model envelope.
 
 After a bit of a northward jump, Enrique appears to be moving
 northwestward at about 9 kt.  The track should gradually bend back
 to the west-northwest over the next couple of days while the storm
 is steered by a building mid-level ridge. The long-range forecast is
 rather uncertain due to possible interactions with both Dolores to
 the east and a mid-latitude trough to the north.  Overall, the
 guidance has shifted north and west at most of the forecast points,
 and the NHC track prediction follows suit, lying near or just to the
 southeast of the consensus at most forecast times.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  13/0900Z 15.2N 126.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  13/1800Z 16.1N 127.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  14/0600Z 16.8N 128.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
  36H  14/1800Z 17.4N 130.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
  48H  15/0600Z 17.8N 131.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
  72H  16/0600Z 18.5N 135.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
  96H  17/0600Z 19.5N 137.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 120H  18/0600Z 19.3N 138.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Blake
 
 
Return to the Tropical Systems Page for ENRIQUE

Back to main Tropical Weather page




This page is maintained voluntarily by the MKWC and the UHMET faculty, staff, and students.
It was last modified on: , 17 2014 - 1841 UTC
Send comments to: Ryan Lyman