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 277 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 130236
 TCDEP1
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062015
 800 PM PDT SUN JUL 12 2015
 
 The cloud pattern of the depression has not changed much during the
 last several hours.  Deep convection remains mainly confined to a
 curved band to the south of the center and in an area over the
 northeastern quadrant. Although the latest Dvorak classifications
 from TAFB and SAB support raising the intensity to minimal tropical
 storm strength, 35 kt, I am maintaining the wind speed at 30 kt
 based on the steady state nature of the system since the ASCAT pass
 earlier today.
 
 The depression has wobbled northward over the past few hours, but a
 longer term motion is west-northwestward at 5 kt.  A slightly
 faster west-northwestward to northwestward motion is predicted
 during the next 3 to 4 days while the cyclone is steered by a
 narrow mid-level ridge.  Beyond that time, the system is expected
 to slow down when the steering currents collapse due to the
 approach of Dolores to its east.  The NHC track forecast has been
 nudged to the north of the previous one, primarily to account for
 the more northward initial position.
 
 The cyclone has an opportunity to strengthen during the next
 couple of days while it remains in low wind shear conditions and
 over relatively warm water.  There does appear to be a fair amount
 of stable air to the north of the system, however, and that could
 limit the amount of intensification that occurs.  Beyond 48 hours,
 the cyclone is expected to move over cooler water and into a drier
 air mass.  These conditions should provoke weakening.  The NHC
 intensity forecast is the same as the previous one, and is in best
 agreement with the SHIPS model.  It is worth noting that none of the
 intensity guidance shows much strengthening of the system.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  13/0300Z 14.0N 126.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  13/1200Z 15.0N 127.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  14/0000Z 15.7N 128.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  14/1200Z 16.4N 129.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  15/0000Z 16.9N 131.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
  72H  16/0000Z 17.7N 134.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
  96H  17/0000Z 18.5N 136.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 120H  18/0000Z 18.6N 137.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Cangialosi
 
 
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