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 803 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 122051
 TCDEP1
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062015
 200 PM PDT SUN JUL 12 2015
 
 The convective structure of the tropical cyclone has improved
 somewhat today, with a band of deep convection wrapping around the
 south and southwestern portions of the circulation.  Although Dvorak
 data T-numbers have increased to T2.5 from both agencies, a recent
 ASCAT pass suggests that the system is still below tropical storm
 strength.  Environmental conditions consisting of warm water and low
 vertical wind shear should allow for strengthening during the next
 couple of days.  The primary inhibiting factor appears to be some
 drier and more stable air to the north and northwest of the
 cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous
 advisory and is in close agreement with the SHIPS guidance during
 the first 48 hours.  After that time, increasing southerly shear,
 cooler waters, and a more stable airmass are expected to cause
 weakening.
 
 Visible satellite images indicate that the initial position of
 the cyclone is a little south of the previous estimate.  As a
 result, the initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 300/6.  The
 depression is expected to move on a general west-northwest to
 northwest heading during the next several days while it remains to
 the south of a narrow mid-level ridge.  Near the end of the forecast
 period, the global models continue to show weakening of the steering
 flow over the far eastern Pacific as the large circulation of
 Dolores approaches from the east.  This is likely to cause
 the cyclone's forward speed to decrease.  The track guidance remains
 in agreement on this scenario, and the NHC forecast is close to the
 GFS ensemble mean, and just south of the model consensus.  The new
 NHC track is a little south of the previous advisory due to the more
 southward initial position.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  12/2100Z 13.6N 125.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  13/0600Z 14.5N 127.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  13/1800Z 15.3N 128.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  14/0600Z 15.9N 129.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  14/1800Z 16.4N 130.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
  72H  15/1800Z 17.0N 133.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
  96H  16/1800Z 18.0N 135.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 120H  17/1800Z 18.3N 136.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brown
 
 
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