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 817 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 121601
 TCDEP1
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062015
 900 AM PDT SUN JUL 12 2015
 
 Convection associated with the area of low pressure located
 well southwest of the southern tip of Baja California has become
 better organized since yesterday, with a band now wrapping around
 the western semicircle of the system.  Overnight scatterometer data
 and early morning visible satellite pictures indicate that the
 circulation has become sufficiently well defined, therefore
 advisories are being initiated on the sixth tropical depression of
 the 2015 eastern Pacific hurricane season. The initial intensity
 is set at 30 kt, which is in agreement with a TAFB Dvorak
 classification of 2.0.
 
 The depression is forecast to remain over warm water and in a low
 shear environment during the next few days, however, drier and more
 stable air to the northwest of the cyclone may prevent significant
 intensification.  The NHC intensity forecast calls for gradual
 strengthening during the next few days, and is in best agreement
 with the SHIPS guidance.  The cyclone is expected to move over
 cooler waters which should induce some weakening at days 4 and 5.
 
 The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 305/6.  The depression is
 forecast to turn west-northwestward as a ridge builds to its north
 during the next day or two.  After that time, the cyclone should
 maintain a general westward to west-northwestward track.  Later in
 the period, global models suggest that the steering flow should
 weaken around the depression as Dolores' circulation approaches from
 the west.  This pattern should cause the depression's forward speed
 to decrease.  Although the track guidance is in general agreement
 with this scenario, there is some spread in how much latitude the
 depression will gain during the next couple of days.  The NHC track
 is closest to the GFS ensemble mean, which is a little south of the
 multi-model consensus.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  12/1600Z 13.6N 125.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  13/0000Z 14.5N 126.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  13/1200Z 15.6N 127.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  14/0000Z 16.3N 128.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  14/1200Z 16.8N 130.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
  72H  15/1200Z 17.5N 133.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
  96H  16/1200Z 17.8N 136.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 120H  17/1200Z 18.2N 138.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brown
 
 
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