034 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 070835
 TCDEP2
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072009
 200 AM PDT FRI AUG 07 2009
  
 ENRIQUE HAS BEEN A RESILIENT CYCLONE. DESPITE THE HOSTILE
 ENVIRONMENT...IT STILL HAS A TIGHT CIRCULATION WITH SMALL AREA OF
 THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CENTER. EARLIER QUIKSCAT DATA SUPPORT
 30-KNOT WINDS BUT...GIVEN THE CURRENT ORGANIZATION AND THE FACT THAT
 ENRIQUE IS MOVING OVER COOL WATERS...WEAKENING IS INDICATED. 
 ENRIQUE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY.
 
 THE CIRCULATION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 12
 KNOTS...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH
 A TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED UNTIL DISSIPATION IN
 ABOUT A DAY OR SO. 
 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      07/0900Z 24.1N 129.6W    30 KT
  12HR VT     07/1800Z 25.0N 131.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  24HR VT     08/0600Z 26.0N 133.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  36HR VT     08/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER AVILA
  
 
 
 035 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 070835
 TCDEP3
 HURRICANE FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082009
 200 AM PDT FRI AUG 07 2009
  
 INFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD
 PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH FELICIA HAS SUBSTANTIALLY DETERIORATED
 DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS. MOREOVER...CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE
 WARMED CONSIDERABLY AND THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION HAS BECOME
 ASYMMETRIC. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED TO 5.0 FROM BOTH TAFB
 AND SAB.  THE INTENSITY IS THEREFORE BEING REDUCED TO 100 KT ON
 THIS ADVISORY...THOUGH THIS MAY BE SOMEWHAT GENEROUS GIVEN RECENT
 TRENDS.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 300/9...THE SAME MOTION THAT HAS
 PERSISTED WITH LITTLE DEVIATION FOR THE LAST 48 HOURS.  AT THE
 MOMENT...FELICIA IS TRACKING TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL
 SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LYING NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.  HOWEVER...
 THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY
 OR TWO AS STRONGER SUBTROPICAL RIDGING BUILDS NORTH OF THE CYCLONE
 AND CAUSES FELICIA TO TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
 THEREAFTER...GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT A WEAKER FELICIA...LIKELY A MORE
 SHALLOW SYSTEM...BEING STEERED WESTWARD AND EVENTUALLY WEST-
 SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW.  THE MODEL
 CONSENSUS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD THIS CYCLE BEYOND 24
 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT.
  
 FELICIA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE
 NEXT DAY OR TWO...WITH THE MAIN CONTROLLING FACTOR ON INTENSITY
 LIKELY TO BE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG
 THE PATH OF THE CYCLONE.  BEYOND 48 HOURS...INCREASING WESTERLY
 SHEAR...ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NOTED
 ABOVE...SHOULD ACCELERATE THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND IN SPITE OF
 MARGINALLY WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WEST OF 150W. SHOULD
 FELICIA MOVE LEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK BEYOND 48 HOURS...THERE IS
 SOME CHANCE THAT THE RATE OF WEAKENING COULD BE SLOWER THAN
 FORECAST.
   
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      07/0900Z 17.5N 134.4W   100 KT
  12HR VT     07/1800Z 18.2N 135.7W    85 KT
  24HR VT     08/0600Z 19.0N 137.7W    70 KT
  36HR VT     08/1800Z 19.4N 140.1W    60 KT
  48HR VT     09/0600Z 19.6N 142.7W    50 KT
  72HR VT     10/0600Z 19.5N 148.0W    35 KT
  96HR VT     11/0600Z 19.0N 153.5W    25 KT
 120HR VT     12/0600Z 19.0N 159.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA