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 773 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 060840
 TCDEP2
 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072009
 200 AM PDT THU AUG 06 2009
  
 CONTRARY TO WHAT THE MODELS WERE INDICATING...ENRIQUE HAS REMAINED
 DETACHED FROM FELICIA. IN FACT...MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THAT ENRIQUE
 HAS SURPRISINGLY MAINTAINED A WELL-DEFINED CONVECTIVE RING
 ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER...WHICH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SMALL BUT
 STRONG AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS. BASED ON THE RESILIENT CLOUD PATTERN
 AND A 0300 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45
 KNOTS. NEITHER THE SHEAR NOR THE PROXIMITY TO FELICIA HAVE WEAKENED
 ENRIQUE...BUT THE CYCLONE IS ALREADY OVER 24.4 DEGREES CELSIUS
 WATERS AND IS HEADING TOWARD EVEN COLDER SSTS. THIS WILL LIKELY BE
 THE KISS OF DEATH AND ENRIQUE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT
 LOW IN ABOUT 36 HOURS OR LESS.
  
 ENRIQUE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS
 WITHIN THE FLOW BETWEEN THE NORTHERN CIRCULATION OF FELICIA AND THE
 SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO BE
 STEERED MORE THE WEST BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AS IT WEAKENS AND
 BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM.  MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT EVEN
 ACKNOWLEDGE THE PRESENCE OF ENRIQUE...AND THE ONES THAT DO...MOVE
 THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN WESTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      06/0900Z 20.7N 125.9W    45 KT
  12HR VT     06/1800Z 22.0N 127.8W    40 KT
  24HR VT     07/0600Z 22.5N 130.5W    30 KT
  36HR VT     07/1800Z 23.0N 133.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  48HR VT     08/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER AVILA
  
 
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