941 
 WTNT45 KNHC 020848
 TCDAT5
  
 TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052011
 500 AM AST TUE AUG 02 2011
  
 THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF EMILY INDICATES LITTLE CHANGE IN
 ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THERE IS ONLY SLIGHT
 EVIDENCE OF BANDING FEATURES...AND SINCE THE CENTER LOCATION IS
 QUITE UNCERTAIN IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE HOW FAR THE CENTER IS
 EMBEDDED INTO THE DENSE CONVECTIVE OVERCAST.  CONSEQUENTLY...
 OBTAINING A RELIABLE INTENSITY ESTIMATE VIA THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE IS
 PROBLEMATIC.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES...THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35
 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
 SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE EMILY AROUND 1200 UTC AND SHOULD GIVE A
 BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH OF THE CYCLONE.  RADIOSONDE DATA
 FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN STATIONS SHOW SOME UNFAVORABLE
 NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 300 MB JUST BELOW THE UPPER-LEVEL
 OUTFLOW LEVEL.  MOREOVER...AS NOTED EARLIER...SOME DRY AIR IS
 PRESENT JUST TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF EMILY.  IN A FEW
 DAYS...PERHAPS IN PART DUE TO THESE LARGE-SCALE FACTORS...THE GFS
 AND ECMWF MODELS WEAKEN EMILY TO A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH.  THE OFFICIAL
 INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING INTERRUPTED BY THE
 INTERACTION WITH HISPANIOLA...BUT NO LONGER BRINGS THE CYCLONE TO
 HURRICANE INTENSITY IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 
 THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OUR MOST RELIABLE INTENSITY
 GUIDANCE...THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODEL LGEM.
  
 SINCE IT IS DIFFICULT TO FIND THE CENTER...THE INITIAL MOTION IS A
 RATHER UNCERTAIN 280/14.   THE STORM SHOULD BE STEERED BY THE FLOW
 TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE FOR A DAY OR SO.  AS A TROUGH
 JUST OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST WEAKENS THE RIDGE...A GRADUAL TURN
 TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED.  LATE IN THE PERIOD...A
 NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS FORECAST...WITH THE ASSUMPTION OF A
 DEEPER VORTEX MOVING THROUGH THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE.  HOWEVER THE
 GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DEPICT A MUCH MORE WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE
 SHALLOW VORTEX OR TROUGH.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NUDGED A
 LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE MAINLY OUT OF RESPECT FOR
 THE GFS AND ECMWF.  NEEDLESS TO SAY...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
 UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE EMILY WILL BE AND HOW STRONG IT WILL BE IN
 3 TO 5 DAYS.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  02/0900Z 15.5N  64.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  02/1800Z 16.2N  66.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  03/0600Z 17.0N  68.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
  36H  03/1800Z 17.8N  70.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
  48H  04/0600Z 18.7N  73.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
  72H  05/0600Z 22.5N  76.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER
  96H  06/0600Z 26.0N  79.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 120H  07/0600Z 30.0N  80.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER PASCH