156 
 WTNT45 KNHC 020243
 TCDAT5
  
 TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052011
 1100 PM AST MON AUG 01 2011
  
 EMILY STILL HAS A RATHER DISHEVELED APPEARANCE IN GEOSTATIONARY
 IMAGERY...AND THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED A BIT OVER THE PAST FEW
 HOURS AND LACK MUCH IN THE WAY OF CURVATURE.  BASED ON THE LACK OF
 IMPROVEMENT IN THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
 ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
 00Z DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM SAB.  THE ATMOSPHERIC
 ENVIRONMENT NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE ONLY
 MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION...AS SEEN BY THE COPIOUS
 DRY AIR IN THE 00Z SAN JUAN RADIOSONDE AND SATELLITE PRECIPITABLE
 WATER IMAGERY.  THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS ONLY MODEST
 STRENGTHENING IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND IN FACT THE LATEST GFDL
 MODEL RUN EVEN DISSIPATES THE CYCLONE IN ABOUT TWO DAYS.  THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE IVCN INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH
 36 HOURS...AND THEN SHOWS WEAKENING AT 48 AND 72 HOURS AS EMILY IS
 EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH HISPANIOLA.  ASSUMING THAT EMILY RECOVERS
 FROM INTERACTION WITH THE ISLAND...GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED
 LATE IN THE PERIOD AND THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LGEM.
  
 THE CENTER HAS BEEN A BIT DIFFICULT TO LOCATE SINCE THE AIRCRAFT
 DEPARTED...SO THE INITIAL POSITION AND INITIAL MOTION OF 275/15 ARE
 QUITE UNCERTAIN AND BASED LARGELY ON CONTINUITY.  OVERALL THE
 GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
 SYNOPTIC PATTERN...AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN
 ATLANTIC WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE RIDGE NORTH OF EMILY OVER THE
 NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS.  THIS WILL ALLOW EMILY TO TURN TOWARD THE
 WEST-NORTHWEST AND GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
 LATE IN THE PERIOD... THE MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH LIFTING OUT AND
 SOME RIDGING RE-BUILDING NORTH OF EMILY.  HOWEVER...BOTH THE
 DETAILS OF THE RIDGE AND THE DEPTH OF THE CYCLONE APPEAR TO MAKE
 ALL THE DIFFERENCE IN THE EVENTUAL TRACK.  FOR EXAMPLE...THE LATEST
 GFS RUN HAS A SLIGHTLY WEAKER RIDGE AND A MUCH DEEPER
 REPRESENTATION OF EMILY THAT MOVES MORE NORTHWARD.  THE HWRF AND
 GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ALSO FOLLOW THIS GENERAL SCENARIO.  ON THE OTHER
 HAND...THE ECMWF HAS A MUCH WEAKER REPRESENTATION OF EMILY THAT
 MOVES MORE WESTWARD LATE IN THE PERIOD UNDERNEATH A STRONGER RIDGE.
 GIVEN THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD...THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN
 THE TRACK FORECAST AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THE NEW NHC TRACK
 FORECAST IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE THROUGH 72
 HOURS...AND HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT TOWARD THE TVCA
 MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AT DAYS 4 AND 5.
 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  02/0300Z 15.5N  62.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  02/1200Z 15.9N  64.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  03/0000Z 16.8N  67.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
  36H  03/1200Z 17.8N  69.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
  48H  04/0000Z 18.9N  71.4W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
  72H  05/0000Z 22.0N  75.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER
  96H  06/0000Z 25.0N  78.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 120H  07/0000Z 27.5N  80.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BRENNAN