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 927 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 012033
 TCDEP1
 
 Tropical Depression Emilia Discussion Number  17
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062018
 200 PM PDT Sun Jul 01 2018
 
 Deep convection associated with Emilia has decreased in coverage
 since this morning, and it appears that Emilia is finally well on
 its way to becoming a remnant low.  The initial wind speed is set to
 25 kt, which is supported by subjective Dvorak intensity estimates
 from both TAFB and SAB.
 
 Emilia is currently over SSTs of 24-25 degrees Celsius and is moving
 into a drier and more stable airmass.  As a result, the cyclone
 should degenerate into a remnant low later today or tonight, then
 continue to spin down and dissipate within 72 hours.
 
 The cyclone is moving west-northwestward or 295/10 kt.  A
 west-northwestward motion should continue for a little longer but
 the system will likely turn toward the west as it comes under the
 influence of the easterly low-level tradewind flow. The latest
 track envelope has shifted slightly northward and the updated NHC
 track has been adjusted accordingly.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  01/2100Z 19.7N 124.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
  12H  02/0600Z 20.3N 125.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  24H  02/1800Z 21.2N 127.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  03/0600Z 22.0N 130.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  03/1800Z 22.5N 133.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  04/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brown
 
 
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