898 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 011513 CCA
 TCDEP1
 
 Tropical Depression Emilia Discussion Number  16...Corrected
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062018
 800 AM PDT Sun Jul 01 2018
 
 Corrected to add DISSIPATED line at 72H.
 
 Somewhat surprisingly, a small area of convection southwest of the
 center of Emilia has persisted overnight, despite SSTs of around 25C
 below the cyclone.  Although the depression is located within a
 fairly hostile thermodynamic environment, an upper-level trough to
 the northwest may be providing enough dynamical support to maintain
 the convection, at least for now.  No recent scatterometer data is
 available, so the initial intensity has been held at 25 kt based on
 the latest Dvorak fixes from TAFB and SAB. The cyclone will still
 likely lose all of its convection and become a remnant low later
 today or early tomorrow since the upper-level dynamical support
 should decrease over the next 12 hours or so and it will be moving
 into a progressively drier environment. The various dynamical models
 unanimously indicate that Emilia will then steadily spin down before
 dissipating sometime between 48 and 72 h.
 
 The initial motion is still 295/10 kt, and as long as Emilia
 maintains convection, it will likely remain on this heading.  Once
 the system becomes a remnant low, the low-level tradewind flow will
 cause it to turn westward until dissipation occurs in a few days.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  01/1500Z 19.3N 123.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
  12H  02/0000Z 19.9N 124.7W   25 KT  30 MPH
  24H  02/1200Z 20.6N 126.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  03/0000Z 21.2N 129.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  03/1200Z 21.5N 131.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  04/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Zelinsky