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 685 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 300232
 TCDEP1
 
 Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number  10
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062018
 800 PM PDT Fri Jun 29 2018
 
 The cloud pattern has become less organized tonight. The center is
 even more separated from the main convection than earlier today,
 while the low-level circulation is becoming somewhat elongated.
 This is a result of a persistent easterly shear and the effect of
 cooler waters.  Based on the current pattern and the decrease in the
 Dvorak numbers, the initial intensity has been lowered to 40 kt in
 this advisory. Emilia could still maintain tropical storm status for
 a day or so, but given the environmental conditions of shear and
 cool waters, the NHC forecast calls for weakening and Emilia could
 become a remnant low in 3 days or even sooner.
 
 The initial motion is toward the west-northwest or 290 at 10 kt.
 The cyclone should continue to be steered on the same direction
 for the next few days by the flow south of a subtropical ridge. The
 NHC forecast is very near the HFIP Corrected consensus HCCA which is
 in the middle of the guidance envelope.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  30/0300Z 16.8N 117.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  30/1200Z 17.2N 119.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  01/0000Z 17.8N 121.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  01/1200Z 18.5N 123.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
  48H  02/0000Z 19.5N 124.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
  72H  03/0000Z 21.5N 128.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  04/0000Z 22.2N 133.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  05/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Avila
 
 
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