WTPZ41 KNHC 300232
Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062018
800 PM PDT Fri Jun 29 2018
The cloud pattern has become less organized tonight. The center is
even more separated from the main convection than earlier today,
while the low-level circulation is becoming somewhat elongated.
This is a result of a persistent easterly shear and the effect of
cooler waters. Based on the current pattern and the decrease in the
Dvorak numbers, the initial intensity has been lowered to 40 kt in
this advisory. Emilia could still maintain tropical storm status for
a day or so, but given the environmental conditions of shear and
cool waters, the NHC forecast calls for weakening and Emilia could
become a remnant low in 3 days or even sooner.
The initial motion is toward the west-northwest or 290 at 10 kt.
The cyclone should continue to be steered on the same direction
for the next few days by the flow south of a subtropical ridge. The
NHC forecast is very near the HFIP Corrected consensus HCCA which is
in the middle of the guidance envelope.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/0300Z 16.8N 117.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 17.2N 119.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 17.8N 121.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 18.5N 123.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 19.5N 124.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 21.5N 128.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 04/0000Z 22.2N 133.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
Return to the Tropical Systems Page for EMILIA
Back to main Tropical Weather page
This page is maintained voluntarily by the MKWC and the UHMET faculty, staff, and students.
It was last modified on: Thu, Jul 23 2020 - 2003 UTC
Send comments to: Ryan Lyman