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 739 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 292032
 TCDEP1
 
 Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number   9
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062018
 200 PM PDT Fri Jun 29 2018
 
 Emilia remains a sheared tropical cyclone, as visible satellite
 images show that the center is located near the northeastern edge of
 a large mass of deep convection.  The center has become a little
 more exposed this afternoon, but Dvorak Data T-numbers are unchanged
 from this morning and the initial intensity is kept at 50 kt for
 this advisory.  Although the shear is forecast to decrease during
 the next 24 hours, the cyclone will be moving over gradually
 decreasing SSTs, so little overall change in strength is anticipated
 during that time.  By late Saturday, Emilia is forecast to cross the
 26 degree isotherm and move into a less favorable thermodynamic
 environment, which should initiate weakening.  Dry air and cool
 waters should accelerate the spin down and Emilia is forecast to
 degenerate into a remnant low in about 72 hours, if not sooner.
 
 The initial motion estimate is 295/9 kt.  Emilia should continue
 moving west-northwestward to the south of a low to mid-level ridge.
 After weakening, a more westward motion is forecast as the system
 comes under the influence of the low-level trade wind flow.  The
 track guidance remains in good agreement and the updated official
 foreast is near the center of the guidance envelope.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  29/2100Z 16.6N 116.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
  12H  30/0600Z 17.0N 118.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
  24H  30/1800Z 17.5N 120.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
  36H  01/0600Z 18.3N 122.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  01/1800Z 19.1N 123.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
  72H  02/1800Z 21.0N 127.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  03/1800Z 22.1N 131.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  04/1800Z 22.5N 136.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brown
 
 
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