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 635 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 291433
 TCDEP1
  
 Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number   8
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062018
 800 AM PDT Fri Jun 29 2018
  
 Shortwave infrared imagery and an earlier 0855 UTC AMSR2 polar
 orbiter pass show deep convective bursts, with associated
 -78C cloud tops, developing near the surface center.  The microwave
 pass also revealed improved curved banding to the south of the
 center.  Based on these recent cloud pattern trends, it appears as
 though the east-northeasterly shear is beginning to diminish, as
 predicted by the SHIPS and LGEM intensity models.  The initial
 intensity is increased to 50 kt on this advisory based on a blend of
 the Dvorak subjective T-numbers from TAFB and SAB, and an earlier
 SATCON analysis of 50 kt.
  
 Some further strengthening is still possible during the next 24
 hours or so as the shear continues to relax.  Afterward, decreasing
 sea surface temperatures and a stabilizing air mass should initiate
 a weakening trend.  A majority of the large-scale models indicate
 that Emily will degenerate into a remnant low in 4 days, if not
 sooner.  The NHC forecast follows suit and is based on the HCCA and
 FSU Superensemble intensity consensus forecasts.
  
 The initial motion is estimated to be 295/10 kt.  Emily continues
 to be steered by a relatively narrow low to mid-level tropospheric
 ridge situated to the north.  Global and hurricane models continue
 to remain in good agreement with a general west-northwestward motion
 until dissipation.  The official forecast is slightly to the left
 of the previous advisory and closely follows the HCCA and TVCN
 consensus models through day 5.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  29/1500Z 16.2N 116.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
  12H  30/0000Z 16.6N 117.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
  24H  30/1200Z 17.2N 119.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
  36H  01/0000Z 17.8N 121.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
  48H  01/1200Z 18.5N 123.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
  72H  02/1200Z 20.3N 127.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
  96H  03/1200Z 21.7N 130.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  04/1200Z 22.7N 134.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  
 $$
 Forecaster Roberts
  
 
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