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 349 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 290838
 TCDEP1
 
 Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number   7
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062018
 200 AM PDT Fri Jun 29 2018
 
 Emilia has changed little in organization since the previous
 advisory, with the convection continuing to be displaced to the
 west and southwest of the low-level center by 15-20 kt of easterly
 vertical wind shear.  The initial intensity remains 45 kt based on
 a blend of various satellite intensity estimates.
 
 The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 300/10.  A low- to
 mid-level subtropical ridge to the north of Emilia should steer the
 cyclone generally west-northwestward through the forecast period,
 and the track guidance is in good agreement with this scenario.
 The new forecast track is an update of the previous forecast.
 
 The dynamical model guidance suggests that the shear should
 gradually decrease during the next 24-48 h.  However, the sea
 surface temperatures along the forecast track decrease during this
 time, and it is uncertain if Emilia will be able to take advantage
 of the more favorable upper-level winds.  The new forecast follows
 the trend of the previous forecast in showing slight strengthening
 during this time.  After 48 h, the cyclone is expected to move over
 cool enough waters to cause steady weakening, and Emilia is
 currently forecast to decay to a remnant low by 96 h.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  29/0900Z 16.0N 115.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  29/1800Z 16.5N 116.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
  24H  30/0600Z 17.2N 118.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
  36H  30/1800Z 17.8N 120.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
  48H  01/0600Z 18.4N 122.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
  72H  02/0600Z 20.0N 126.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
  96H  03/0600Z 21.5N 129.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  04/0600Z 23.0N 133.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Beven
 
 
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