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 290 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 290232
 TCDEP1
 
 Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number   6
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062018
 900 PM MDT Thu Jun 28 2018
 
 Several microwave images during the day revealed that Emilia
 continues to be a sheared cyclone with the center to the east of a
 convective mass. However, it appears that during the past hour or
 so, the center is a little closer to the edge of the thunderstorm
 activity, and Dvorak T-numbers are now indicative of a 45-kt
 tropical cyclone. Model guidance is not showing much decrease in the
 northeasterly shear for the next 24 to 36 h, and this scenario only
 allows for slight strengthening. In addition, by the time the shear
 is forecast to decrease, the circulation of Emilia will be affected
 by cooler waters. By then, a decay in intensity is anticipated.
 
 Emilia is moving toward the west-northwest or 290 degrees at about
 10 kt, steered by the flow around a narrow subtropical ridge to the
 north of the cyclone.  Most of the global models indicate that the
 ridge will persist for the next several days, and the forecast
 flow pattern should keep Emilia on the same general track until
 dissipation. The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one
 and follows very closely the HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA), which
 is in the middle of the guidance envelope.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  29/0300Z 15.4N 114.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  29/1200Z 16.0N 116.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
  24H  30/0000Z 16.6N 117.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
  36H  30/1200Z 17.3N 119.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
  48H  01/0000Z 18.0N 121.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
  72H  02/0000Z 19.7N 125.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
  96H  03/0000Z 21.5N 129.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  04/0000Z 23.0N 133.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Avila
 
 
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