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 606 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 282031
 TCDEP1
 
 Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number   5
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062018
 300 PM MDT Thu Jun 28 2018
 
 Satellite images indicate that Emilia is better organized than this
 morning, with a large banding feature wrapping around the western
 semicircle.  There is still a fair amount of northeasterly shear,
 however, since the eastern part of the circulation is partially
 exposed.  A blend of the Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB gives an
 initial wind speed of 40 kt.  Further strengthening is expected over
 the next day or so while Emilia experiences decreasing shear over
 warm waters.  A gradual decline in intensity should begin over the
 weekend due to the storm encountering cooler SSTs and entraining
 drier more stable air.  Model guidance is a bit higher with the peak
 intensity of Emilia on this cycle, and the official prediction
 follows suit, ending up near the corrected consensus models.
 
 The storm continues to move west-northwestward this afternoon.  A
 gradual decrease in Emilia's forward speed should occur over the
 next few days due to a weakening mid-level ridge to the north.  The
 global models are still indicating a break in the subtropical ridge
 persisting at long range, which would keep the west-northwestward
 motion going throughout the period.  The only change to the track
 forecast is a northward adjustment at days 4 and 5 to better match
 the poleward-trending models, although the official forecast
 remains on the southern side of the guidance envelope.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  28/2100Z 14.9N 113.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  29/0600Z 15.5N 115.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  29/1800Z 16.2N 117.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
  36H  30/0600Z 16.9N 118.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
  48H  30/1800Z 17.5N 120.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
  72H  01/1800Z 19.0N 123.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
  96H  02/1800Z 21.0N 127.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  03/1800Z 22.5N 131.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Blake
 
 
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