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 548 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 280855
 TCDEP1
 
 Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number   3
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062018
 300 AM MDT Thu Jun 28 2018
 
 Convection has steadily increased and become better organized since
 the previous advisory, especially in the inner-core region.
 Satellite intensity estimates at 0600 UTC were T2.0/30 kt from both
 TAFB and SAB, and T2.3/33 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT. Since that time,
 however, convection near the low-level center has increased,
 resulting in a steady increase in the raw ADT estimates to T2.5/35
 kt. Based on the latter data, the initial intensity is increased to
 35 kt at the advisory time, making Emilia the fifth tropical storm
 so far this season as well as the fifth tropical storm so far during
 the month of June.
 
 The motion estimate is an uncertain 285/13 kt due to uncertainty in
 the exact location of the low-level center. Passive microwave
 satellite data, plus extrapolation of the previous motion, were
 used to locate the center. However, recent GOES-16 nighttime cloud
 physics satellite data suggest that the center may be developing
 closer to the ball of strong convection in the southern portion of
 the north-to-southwest elongated circulation. Having said that, the
 latest model guidance remains in fair agreement on Emilia moving in
 a general west-northwestward direction during the next 96 hours,
 accompanied by a gradual decrease in forward speed. Afterwards,
 what should be a weakened and more shallow cyclone is expected to
 be turned westward by a strong subtropical ridge and brisk easterly
 tradewind flow. The GFS and UKMET models take Emilia more
 northwestward into the strong subtropical ridge after 72 hours,
 which seems unlikely. As a result, the new track forecast is similar
 to the previous advisory, which lies near the southern edge of the
 guidance envelope and close to a blend of the ECMWF and HWRF models.
 
 Emilia's outflow is good to the west but restricted to the east due
 to near 20 kt of easterly vertical wind shear. The shear is forecast
 to decrease to around 15 kt by 48 hours and to less than 10 kt by 72
 h and beyond. This should allow for some modest strengthening
 during the next 48 h while the cyclone remains over SSTs greater
 than 26 deg C. After that time, however, SSTs drop off sharply to
 less than 25C, and the cooler water temperatures are expected to
 combine with much drier mid-level to induce a steady weakening trend
 despite the favorable shear environment. The new NHC intensity
 forecast is essentially just the same as the previous advisory, and
 is slightly higher the consensus intensity model IVCN.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  28/0900Z 13.8N 111.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  28/1800Z 14.4N 113.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  29/0600Z 15.2N 115.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  29/1800Z 15.9N 117.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  30/0600Z 16.5N 118.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
  72H  01/0600Z 17.6N 121.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
  96H  02/0600Z 19.1N 125.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 120H  03/0600Z 20.3N 129.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Stewart
 
 
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