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 641 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 280234
 TCDEP1
 
 Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number   2
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062018
 900 PM MDT Wed Jun 27 2018
 
 Convection associated with the depression has become a little better
 organized since the previous advisory as there has been a general
 increase in banding over the northwestern portion of the
 circulation. Despite the increase in organization, Dvorak intensity
 estimates from both TAFB and SAB are still below tropical storm
 strength, so the initial intensity will remain 30 kt for this
 advisory.
 
 The depression is currently located within an area of moderate
 northeasterly shear, however, the shear is forecast to decrease over
 the next couple of days.  During this time, the depression will be
 traversing warm water and gradual strengthening is anticipated.  By
 the weekend, the system is expected to begin moving over cooler
 waters and into less favorable thermodynamic conditions which should
 halt further intensification. Cool water and a more stable air mass
 should result in weakening later in the period and the system is
 forecast to become a remnant low by day 5.  It should be noted that
 the 18Z GFS forecasts a significantly stronger cyclone than the
 remainder of the global models and intensity guidance, and appears
 to be an outlier. Since the strength of the GFS vortex is used as a
 predictor in the SHIPS guidance, that intensity model also showed
 more intensification this cycle.  For now, the NHC intensity
 forecast follows the more conservative LGEM, HWRF, and ECMWF-based
 SHIPS guidance, and is not too different than the previous official
 forecast.  If other models trend toward the GFS solution of a
 stronger storm, the NHC forecast may need to be adjusted in future
 advisories.
 
 Satellite fixes indicate that the depression continues to move
 west-northwestward around 13 kt.  The cyclone is located to the
 south of a mid-level ridge that extends westward from northern
 Mexico.  This should keep the cyclone on a general west-
 northwestward heading during the next several days, however the
 system is forecast to slow down as the ridge weakens by the
 weekend.  The track guidance is in fairly good agreement, except
 for the aforementioned GFS which takes a deeper cyclone
 farther northward as the ridge weakens.  The NHC track forecast is
 near the various consensus models through 48 hours, but leans more
 toward the ECMWF and HWRF after that time.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  28/0300Z 13.6N 109.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  28/1200Z 14.3N 111.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  29/0000Z 15.2N 113.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  29/1200Z 15.9N 115.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  30/0000Z 16.5N 117.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
  72H  01/0000Z 17.3N 120.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
  96H  02/0000Z 18.8N 123.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 120H  03/0000Z 20.0N 128.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brown
 
 
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