920 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 272034
 TCDEP1
 
 Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number   1
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062018
 300 PM MDT Wed Jun 27 2018
 
 Satellite images indicate that the low pressure area south of
 Manzanillo has become better defined during the day, with ample
 banding features to the north and west of the center.  Thus, this
 system is declared a tropical depression, and the initial wind speed
 is set to 30 kt, which is based on an overnight scatterometer
 pass and a satellite estimate of 30 kt from TAFB.
 
 The center has not been particularly easy to track since it hasn't
 had a lot of continuity.  Generally the overall system has been
 moving west-northwestward at about 13 kt, so that will be the
 initial motion.  A mid-level ridge over Mexico extending westward
 into the eastern Pacific is expected to steer the depression
 generally west-northwestward for the next several days, with some
 gradual decrease in forward speed in a few days due to the ridge
 weakening. The biggest uncertainty in the model guidance appears to
 be in the shorter term, with several models indicating a
 northwestward motion could begin soon.  That motion doesn't make
 sense with the west-to-east orientation of the ridge, so the
 official forecast is on the southern side of the guidance envelope
 and the model consensus.
 
 Moderate northeasterly shear is forecast to wane over the next few
 days, which should promote strengthening since the depression is
 over warm waters.  However, this intensification could be tempered
 by marginal SSTs in 2 or 3 days, and an intrusion of drier mid-level
 air as suggested by the GFS/ECMWF models.  Thus only a moderate
 amount of strengthening is forecast, and the official forecast is
 between the SHIPS model and the NOAA corrected consensus HCCA model.
 In about 4 days, the depression will likely be over rather marginal
 SSTs with nearby dry air.  These conditions will probably kill off
 any remaining deep convection, causing the cyclone to degenerate
 into a remnant low by day 5.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  27/2100Z 13.3N 108.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  28/0600Z 14.1N 110.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  28/1800Z 15.1N 112.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  29/0600Z 16.0N 114.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
  48H  29/1800Z 16.6N 116.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
  72H  30/1800Z 17.5N 119.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
  96H  01/1800Z 18.5N 122.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 120H  02/1800Z 19.5N 126.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Blake