057 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 150837
 TCDEP5
  
 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052012
 200 AM PDT SUN JUL 15 2012
  
 VERY LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROPICAL
 CYCLONE AND IS PRIMARILY OCCURRING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT
 OF THE CIRCULATION.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KT BASED
 ON A RECENT ASCAT PASS THAT SHOWED A FEW 30-35 KT VECTORS OVER THE
 NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  AS EMILIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH A
 STABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO
 SPIN DOWN TO A DEPRESSION AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMANANT LOW
 IN 24 HOURS...OR SOONER.
 
 EMILIA CONTINUES WESTWARD AT AROUND 14 KT.  A WESTWARD TO SLIGHTLY
 SOUTH OF DUE WESTWARD TRACK IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
 THE CYCLONE MOVES WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS ROUGHLY IN THE
 MIDDLE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUITE.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  15/0900Z 15.7N 136.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  15/1800Z 15.5N 138.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  16/0600Z 15.3N 141.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  16/1800Z 15.1N 143.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  17/0600Z 15.0N 146.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  18/0600Z 15.0N 152.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  19/0600Z 15.0N 158.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  20/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER PASCH