724 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 142035
 TCDEP5
  
 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052012
 200 PM PDT SAT JUL 14 2012
  
 THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ARE BEGINNING
 TO BECOME DETACHED...AND MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW LOCATED
 IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO BE VERY
 TIGHT AND WINDS ARE PROBABLY STILL NEAR 45 KNOTS. IN FACT...THAT
 INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS. THE CYCLONE IS
 SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR...AS INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGES...AND IS
 MOVING OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS
 FOR WEAKENING AND EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL
 REMNANT LOW BY SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.
  
 EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO BE A SHALLOW SYSTEM AND WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN
 THE LOW-LEVEL TROPICAL TRADE WINDS. THEREFORE...A GENERAL TRACK
 TOWARD THE WEST AT ABOUT 12 TO 14 KNOTS IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
 FORECAST PERIOD.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  14/2100Z 15.5N 132.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  15/0600Z 15.5N 135.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  15/1800Z 15.5N 137.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  16/0600Z 15.5N 140.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  16/1800Z 15.2N 143.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  17/1800Z 15.0N 148.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  18/1800Z 15.0N 153.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  19/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER AVILA