325 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 130839
 TCDEP5
  
 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052012
 200 AM PDT FRI JUL 13 2012
  
 EMILIA CONTINUES ITS RAPID DEMISE WITH MOST OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION
 CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION.  A BLEND
 OF THE T- AND CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB/SAB GIVES AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF
 60 KT.  PERHAPS SOME OF THE WEAKENING IS DUE TO EMILIA MOVING JUST
 TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK OF DANIEL.  IN ANY CASE... A FURTHER
 DECREASE IN WIND SPEED IS ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE SYSTEM MOVING OVER
 SSTS OF 24-25C AND FARTHER INTO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS. 
 THE NEW FORECAST BLENDS THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST AND THE INTENSITY
 CONSENSUS.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS WEAKEN
 THIS STORM FASTER THAN FORECAST BELOW.
 
 EMILIA HAS INCREASED IN FORWARD SPEED A LITTLE...NOW 275/12.  WITH A
 STOUT RIDGE BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...A
 WESTWARD TRACK AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR
 THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE MADE TO THE
 TRACK FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE THE FORWARD SPEED BASED UPON THE
 LATEST GUIDANCE.  THE NEW FORECAST IS A BIT FASTER THAN THE MODEL
 CONSENSUS...BUT STILL LAGS A FAIR DISTANCE BEHIND THE ECMWF TRACK.
   
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  13/0900Z 15.4N 124.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
  12H  13/1800Z 15.6N 126.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
  24H  14/0600Z 15.8N 129.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  14/1800Z 16.0N 131.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
  48H  15/0600Z 16.2N 134.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
  72H  16/0600Z 16.3N 140.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  17/0600Z 16.3N 145.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  18/0600Z 16.3N 150.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BLAKE