917 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 112044
 TCDEP5
  
 HURRICANE EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052012
 200 PM PDT WED JUL 11 2012
  
 EMILIA MADE A LITTLE BIT OF A COME BACK THIS AFTERNOON AND DEVELOPED
 A SOLID RING OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION AROUND A DISTINCT EYE.
 CONSEQUENTLY...DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES HAVE INCREASED
 AND NOW SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS. OBJECTIVE
 T-NUMBERS PROBABLY LED TO A HIGHER INTENSITY EARLIER...BUT SINCE
 THE TIME OF THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATION THE CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED
 A LITTLE BIT. THERE COULD SOME ADDITIONAL FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
 TODAY BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR THE HURRICANE TO GRADUALLY
 WEAKEN AS THE CIRCULATION STARTS TO INTERACT WITH COOLER WATERS IN
 12 HOURS OR SO.
 
 EMILIA HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT
 ABOUT 8 KNOTS...TRAPPED SOUTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. NO
 IMPORTANT CHANGES IN THE STRUCTURE OF THE RIDGE IS ANTICIPATED SO
 EMILIA SHOULD CONTINUE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD
 TRACK AROUND THE RIDGE UNTIL THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
 TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND MOST OF THE
 MODELS HAVE A WEAKENING CYCLONE PROGRESSING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND
 WESTWARD. GIVEN THAT THE STEERING FLOW IS NOT FORECAST TO
 CHANGE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN EXTRAPOLATION OF THE
 PREVIOUS ONE.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  11/2100Z 14.8N 118.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
  12H  12/0600Z 15.1N 119.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
  24H  12/1800Z 15.7N 121.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
  36H  13/0600Z 16.2N 124.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
  48H  13/1800Z 16.5N 126.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
  72H  14/1800Z 17.0N 131.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
  96H  15/1800Z 17.5N 136.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 120H  16/1800Z 17.5N 142.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER AVILA