758 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 110848
 TCDEP5
  
 HURRICANE EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052012
 200 AM PDT WED JUL 11 2012
  
 EMILIA IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE WAKE LEFT BEHIND BY DANIEL THREE
 DAYS AGO WHEN THAT CYCLONE WAS A 70-KT HURRICANE. HOWEVER...DANIEL
 LIKELY DID NOT CREATE ANY COLD UPWELLING BECAUSE EMILIA HAS
 RECENTLY MADE A CONVECTIVE RESURGENCE WITH A RING OF CLOUD TOPS
 COLDER THAN -70C HAVING DEVELOPED AROUND AN EYE FEATURE THAT HAS
 BECOME MORE DISTINCT IN INFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
 THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KT IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS SATELLITE
 CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T5.0/90 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RECENT
 ADT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.1/92 KT...AND THE IMPROVED EYE
 FEATURE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/09 KT. EMILIA REMAINS ON TRACK
 AND THE FORECAST REASONING IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 THE HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
 FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT SKIRTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
 A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. A GRADUAL TURN TO
 THE WEST IS EXPECTED BY DAYS 4 AND 5 AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND
 BUILDS SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS JUST AN
 UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND LIES CLOSE TO THE ECMWF
 MODEL AND THE TVCE CONSENSUS MODEL TRACKS.
  
 ANY INTENSITY GAINS MADE BY EMILIA THIS MORNING WILL BE SHORT-LIVED.
 THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER...INTO A
 DRIER AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT...AND ENCOUNTER INCREASING
 SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. THE
 COMBINATION OF THESE NEGATIVE EFFECTS SHOULD RESULT IN STEADY
 WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IS
 FORECAST TO RELAX SOMEWHAT AFTER 48 HOURS...EMILIA WILL BE IN
 UNFAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS...WHICH SHOULD
 PREVENT THE CYCLONE FROM RE-STRENGTHENING. THE NHC INTENSITY
 FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS CLOSE TO A
 BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  11/0900Z 14.6N 116.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
  12H  11/1800Z 14.9N 118.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
  24H  12/0600Z 15.4N 119.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
  36H  12/1800Z 15.8N 121.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
  48H  13/0600Z 16.3N 124.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
  72H  14/0600Z 17.2N 128.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
  96H  15/0600Z 17.8N 133.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 120H  16/0600Z 18.3N 138.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER STEWART