788 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 110238
 TCDEP5
  
 HURRICANE EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052012
 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 10 2012
  
 THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT AND CLOUD-FILLED
 IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGES DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. IN
 ADDITION...THE LATEST MICROWAVE DATA REVEALED THAT THE EYEWALL HAS
 WEAKENED OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE. DVORAK
 CI-NUMBERS HAVE FALLEN TO 5.0 OR 90 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND
 THE UW-CIMSS ADT VALUES ARE NEAR 100 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA THE
 INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 95 KT. THE LIKELY CAUSE OF THE
 WEAKENING IS MODERATE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR...WHICH IS
 EXPECTED TO INCREASE A LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
 ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO RELAX AFTER 36 HOURS...EMILIA IS
 FORECAST TO MOVE OVER WATER TEMPERATURES BELOW 26C BY THEN AND
 TRACK INTO A PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR MASS. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST CALLS FOR STEADY WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THIS
 FORECAST IS IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY MODEL
 CONSENSUS.
  
 EMILIA HAS JOGGED TO THE NORTH OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
 HOWEVER...A LONGER TERM MOTION IS 290/10. THE TRACK FORECAST
 PHILOSOPHY IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORIES. EMILIA IS
 EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW
 DAYS AS IT REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
 SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. A TURN TO THE WEST IS PREDICTED BEYOND
 A FEW DAYS AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTH OF EMILIA. THE NHC
 OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH AT THE END OF THE
 FORECAST PERIOD TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST MODEL
 GUIDANCE.
   
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  11/0300Z 14.4N 115.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
  12H  11/1200Z 14.7N 117.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
  24H  12/0000Z 15.1N 118.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
  36H  12/1200Z 15.6N 120.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
  48H  13/0000Z 16.0N 122.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
  72H  14/0000Z 17.0N 126.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
  96H  15/0000Z 17.7N 132.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 120H  16/0000Z 18.0N 137.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER CANGIALOSI