266 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 262032
 TCDEP1
 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062006
 200 PM PDT WED JUL 26 2006
  
 EMILIA IS FINALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING UNDER THE INHIBITING
 INFLUENCE OF 22C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  STABLE STRATOCUMULUS
 CLOUDS ARE BECOMING ENTRAINED INTO THE CIRCULATION AND CLOUD TOP
 TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY THIS AFTERNOON.  THE INITIAL
 INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 55 KT...WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE
 DATA-T NUMBERS AND THE CURRENT INTENSITIES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.
 AS A RESULT OF COOLER WATERS AND A MORE STABLE AIR MASS...EMILIA IS
 EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT RAPIDLY TO A REMNANT LOW IN
 36 HOURS.
  
 EMILIA CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 320/10.  THE
 CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY BETWEEN AN ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH AND A
 WEAK TROUGH TO THE WEST.  TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE
 SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY PACKAGE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REASONING
 REMAINS THE SAME.  A GENERAL NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
 CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION OCCURS IN 72 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.
  
 TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF PUERTO SAN
 ANDRESITO.
   
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      26/2100Z 25.5N 114.4W    55 KT
  12HR VT     27/0600Z 26.3N 115.7W    45 KT
  24HR VT     27/1800Z 27.2N 117.3W    30 KT
  36HR VT     28/0600Z 27.7N 118.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  48HR VT     28/1800Z 28.2N 119.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  72HR VT     29/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN