173 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 261440
 TCDEP1
 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062006
 800 AM PDT WED JUL 26 2006
  
 CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYS A WELL DEFINED BANDING
 FEATURE WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -70C...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY
 36 GHZ DATA FROM THE AMSR-E INSTRUMENT AT 0939 UTC.  THE INITIAL
 INTENSITY IS KEPT JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH AT 60 KT...WHICH IS
 A BLEND OF THE CI AND DATA-T NUMBERS FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES.  
 DESPITE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW 24C...EMILIA IS HOLDING ITS
 OWN QUITE WELL.  HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
 MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS AND ENCOUNTER SOME MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY
 OR EASTERLY SHEAR FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHICH SHOULD FINALLY
 WEAKEN EMILIA TO A REMNANT LOW IN 48 HOURS.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 325/11.  THE STEERING MECHANISM OF EMILIA HAS
 BEEN A CHALLENGE TO IDENTIFY...AND MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS
 SHOWN A LEFT BIAS.  WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT
 EMILIA IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN AN ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH AND A
 WEAK TROUGH TO THE WEST. TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
 NORTHWEST MOTION IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT-TERM WITH A MORE WESTERLY
 TRACK AFTER 24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR
 TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. HOWEVER...A POSSIBILITY EXISTS THAT
 EMILIA WILL JUST PARALLEL THE BAJA COAST THROUGH DISSIPATION.
  
 A 1200 UTC SHIP...MQYA3...REPORTED AT NORTHWEST WIND AT 30 KT AROUND
 50 N MI WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. CONSEQUENTLY...THE WIND RADII
 WERE REDUCED ACROSS THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
 
 LAND STATIONS IN PORTIONS OF THE WARNED AREA ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING
 TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS.  THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS
 DISCONTINUED A PORTION OF THE WARNED AREA FROM SANTA FE SOUTHWARD.   
  
   
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      26/1500Z 24.7N 113.5W    60 KT
  12HR VT     27/0000Z 25.7N 114.6W    50 KT
  24HR VT     27/1200Z 26.6N 116.3W    40 KT
  36HR VT     28/0000Z 27.1N 117.6W    30 KT
  48HR VT     28/1200Z 27.5N 118.6W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  72HR VT     29/1200Z 28.0N 120.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     30/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN