779 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 260845
 TCDEP1
 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062006
 200 AM PDT WED JUL 26 2006
  
 SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT EMILIA HAS MAINTAINED ITS
 NEAR-HURRICANE INTENSITY WITH A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. A TRMM
 MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS A PARTIAL
 EYEWALL. A BLEND OF CI AND DATA-T NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB...
 AFWA...AND CIMSS' ADT GIVE A CURRENT INTENSITY OF 60 KT WHICH IS
 UTILIZED HERE.  EMILIA'S MOTION IS BEGINNING TO TURN MORE TOWARD
 THE NORTHWEST AND THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS
 325/10.
 
 EMILIA IS LIKELY TO BEGIN ITS DECAY SHORTLY AS IT IS CURRENTLY OVER
 25C SSTS AND WILL MOVE OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS.
 ADDITIONALLY... MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND A STABLE AIRMASS
 SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO EMILIA'S WEAKENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
 CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE STATISTICAL SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE.
 
 CURRENTLY...EMILIA'S NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS BEING CAUSED BY THE
 COMBINATION OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO ITS NORTH AND A WEAK LOW TO
 MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC GYRE TO ITS SOUTHWEST.  AS EMILIA WEAKENS...IT
 SHOULD BE STEERED MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
 THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND THE FORECAST IS JUST TO
 THE RIGHT OF THE CONSENSUS. 
 
 EMILIA WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO PARALLEL THE WEST COAST OF BAJA
 CALIFORNIA AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COULD REACH THE COAST.
 THEREFORE...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      26/0900Z 24.0N 112.5W    60 KT
  12HR VT     26/1800Z 25.2N 113.5W    50 KT
  24HR VT     27/0600Z 26.3N 115.0W    40 KT
  36HR VT     27/1800Z 27.0N 116.7W    30 KT
  48HR VT     28/0600Z 27.5N 118.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  72HR VT     29/0600Z 28.0N 119.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     30/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA