557
FOPZ11 KNHC 260253
PWSEP1
TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006
0300 UTC WED JUL 26 2006
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
P ABREOJOS 34 5 24(29) 5(34) 2(36) X(36) X(36) X(36)
P ABREOJOS 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
LA PAZ 34 25 1(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26)
LORETO 34 10 7(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)
BAHIA KINO 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GUAYMAS 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
HUATABAMPO 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
LOS MOCHIS 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
CULICAN 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 243N 1127W 34 90 3(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93)
12 243N 1127W 50 34 8(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42)
12 243N 1127W 64 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
24 257N 1140W 34 16 38(54) 3(57) X(57) 1(58) X(58) X(58)
24 257N 1140W 50 X 10(10) 2(12) X(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13)
24 257N 1140W 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
36 265N 1152W 34 3 16(19) 10(29) 1(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31)
36 265N 1152W 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
36 265N 1152W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
48 271N 1165W 34 1 4( 5) 6(11) 3(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16)
48 271N 1165W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
48 271N 1165W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
72 276N 1182W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
72 276N 1182W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
72 276N 1182W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 55 45 35 25 20 0 0
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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