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 652 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 260254
 TCDEP1
 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062006
 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 25 2006
  
 LATE AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS BEEN INDICATING
 INTERMITTENT APPEARANCES OF A BANDING EYE FEATURE. CONVECTIVE
 BANDING HAS INCREASED AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED. THE
 INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 60 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF
 DATA T-NUMBERS AND CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0/65 AND
 T3.5/55 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA...AND ALSO A 25/2035Z
 UW-CIMSS AMSU ESTIMATE OF 75 KT AND 975 MB.
 
 THE SHORT TERM MOTION OF EMILIA HAS BEEN 355/12. HOWEVER...TRENDING
 THROUGH ALL THE WIGGLES AND WOBBLES OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS YIELDS A
 SMOOTHER MOTION OF 345/10 KT...WHICH HAS BEEN USED FOR THIS
 ADVISORY. UNFORTUNATELY...EVEN THAT MOTION...IF CONTINUED FOR THE
 NEXT 9 HOURS...WOULD BRING THE CENTER OF EMILIA VERY CLOSE TO CABO
 SAN LAZARO MEXICO. HOWEVER...WITH AN OFFSHORE WIND FLOW EXPECTED...
 THE CURRENT TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO
 BAHIA MAGDALENA SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT. THERE ARE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO
 THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO
 BEGIN WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY BY 12-18 HOURS...AND THEN BE STEERED
 MORE WESTWARD BY THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO
 THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS
 TRACK TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE NORTHWARD INITIAL POSITION... AND IS
 IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED NHC MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE.
 
 EMILIA HAS PERHAPS ANOTHER 6-9 HOURS OF POSSIBLE STRENGTHENING AND
 IT COULD REACH MINIMAL HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING THAT TIME WHILE IT
 REMAINS OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER. HOWEVER...BY 12 HOURS EMILIA
 WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB-24C SSTS AND SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN
 ...WITH MORE RAPID WEAKENING EXPECTED BY THE 24-HOUR FORECAST
 PERIOD. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
 AND THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL...WHICH SHOWS EXPECTED DISSIPATION OF
 EMILIA BY 60 HOURS.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      26/0300Z 22.9N 111.0W    60 KT
  12HR VT     26/1200Z 24.3N 112.7W    55 KT
  24HR VT     27/0000Z 25.7N 114.0W    45 KT
  36HR VT     27/1200Z 26.5N 115.2W    35 KT
  48HR VT     28/0000Z 27.1N 116.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  72HR VT     29/0000Z 27.6N 118.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     30/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER STEWART
  
 
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