440
FOPZ11 KNHC 240253
PWSEP1
TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006
0300 UTC MON JUL 24 2006
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 2 4( 6) 6(12) 2(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 2 3( 5) 5(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
LA PAZ 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
LORETO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CULICAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 60 31(91) 2(93) 1(94) X(94) X(94) X(94)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 11 48(59) 5(64) 1(65) X(65) X(65) X(65)
ISLA SOCORRO 64 2 31(33) 4(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) X(38)
ISLA CLARION 34 2 4( 6) 11(17) 5(22) 2(24) X(24) X(24)
ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 186N 1099W 34 94 4(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98)
12 186N 1099W 50 66 15(81) 1(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82)
12 186N 1099W 64 33 16(49) 1(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50)
24 194N 1113W 34 36 50(86) 6(92) 1(93) X(93) X(93) X(93)
24 194N 1113W 50 2 50(52) 12(64) 1(65) X(65) X(65) X(65)
24 194N 1113W 64 X 27(27) 11(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38)
36 204N 1127W 34 3 37(40) 33(73) 7(80) 2(82) X(82) X(82)
36 204N 1127W 50 X 8( 8) 31(39) 8(47) 1(48) X(48) X(48)
36 204N 1127W 64 X 2( 2) 17(19) 5(24) X(24) X(24) X(24)
48 214N 1140W 34 1 7( 8) 32(40) 17(57) 6(63) X(63) X(63)
48 214N 1140W 50 X 1( 1) 11(12) 13(25) 4(29) X(29) X(29)
48 214N 1140W 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11)
72 235N 1170W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 13(21) 2(23) X(23)
72 235N 1170W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
72 235N 1170W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
96 250N 1195W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8)
96 250N 1195W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
96 250N 1195W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
120 270N 1225W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
120 270N 1225W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
120 270N 1225W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 70 85 85 70 40 25 20
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN
960
FOPZ15 KNHC 240253
PWSEP5
HURRICANE DANIEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006
0300 UTC MON JUL 24 2006
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 138.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
15N 145W 34 1 3( 4) 6(10) 6(16) 3(19) X(19) X(19)
15N 145W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
20N 145W 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 8(15) 8(23) 1(24) X(24)
20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
BUOY 50004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 2(12)
HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11)
SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9)
KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8)
KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8)
LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7)
KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7)
BUOY 50002 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
LIHUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 163N 1403W 34 95 2(97) 1(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98)
12 163N 1403W 50 74 10(84) X(84) 1(85) X(85) X(85) X(85)
12 163N 1403W 64 37 16(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53)
24 168N 1420W 34 18 61(79) 7(86) 1(87) X(87) X(87) X(87)
24 168N 1420W 50 3 43(46) 8(54) 1(55) 1(56) X(56) X(56)
24 168N 1420W 64 X 20(20) 5(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25)
36 172N 1435W 34 2 31(33) 26(59) 7(66) 3(69) X(69) X(69)
36 172N 1435W 50 X 8( 8) 19(27) 4(31) 2(33) X(33) X(33)
36 172N 1435W 64 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 2(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12)
48 177N 1451W 34 1 5( 6) 22(28) 16(44) 9(53) X(53) 1(54)
48 177N 1451W 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 10(15) 3(18) 1(19) X(19)
48 177N 1451W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
72 185N 1485W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 19(25) 7(32) 1(33)
72 185N 1485W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8)
72 185N 1485W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
96 195N 1525W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 3(17)
96 195N 1525W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
96 195N 1525W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
120 210N 1570W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7)
120 210N 1570W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
120 210N 1570W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 85 75 65 60 55 50 50
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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