558 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 231440
 TCDEP1
 TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062006
 800 AM PDT SUN JUL 23 2006
  
 CONVECTION HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...AND BOTH
 CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE EMILIA HAS
 BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO
 55 KT BASED ON A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5 FROM TAFB...A
 DATA T-NUMBER OF T3.5 FROM SAB...AND A UW-CIMSS 3-H AVERAGE ADT OF
 T3.6/57 KT.
  
 THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT POSITION AND FORWARD
 MOTION OF EMILIA...BUT MY BEST ESTIMATE IS 300/09 KT BASED ON
 LIMITED MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA. A LARGE AND RATHER STOUT MID- TO
 UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
 AND EXTENDING SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTWARD INTO MEXICO IS FORECAST TO
 WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BUT BASICALLY REMAIN INTACT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
 DAYS. AS SUCH...THE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY DEEP-LAYER STEERING FLOW
 ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP EMILIA MOVING IN A
 GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION. THE  MAJORITY OF
 THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. THE
 EXCEPTIONS ARE THE GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MODELS WHICH TAKE EMILIA
 QUICKLY WESTWARD FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION...WHICH SEEMS RATHER
 UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO
 THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE CONU CONSENSUS MODEL.
 
 NOW THAT CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AND RECENT AMSU AND
 AMSR MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE AN EYEWALL WAS FORMING...EMILIA IS
 EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A FASTER RATE THAN PAST TRENDS HAVE BEEN.
 IN FACT...THE LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...IMPROVING OUTFLOW PATTERN IN
 ALL QUADRANTS...AND NEAR-30C SSTS SUGGEST THAT EMILIA MAY BEGIN A
 PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. THE
 RESULT WOULD BE A STRONGER CYCLONE THROUGH 48 HOURS...AFTER WHICH
 WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO EMILIA MOVING OVER MUCH COOLER WATER. 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      23/1500Z 18.1N 107.4W    55 KT
  12HR VT     24/0000Z 18.8N 108.5W    65 KT
  24HR VT     24/1200Z 19.5N 110.1W    75 KT
  36HR VT     25/0000Z 20.2N 111.5W    80 KT
  48HR VT     25/1200Z 20.9N 113.0W    80 KT
  72HR VT     26/1200Z 22.3N 115.7W    55 KT
  96HR VT     27/1200Z 24.0N 118.5W    35 KT...DISSIPATING
 120HR VT     28/1200Z 26.0N 121.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER STEWART