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 375 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 010848
 TCDEP5
 
 TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052014
 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 01 2014
 
 The cloud pattern of Elida is that of a sheared cyclone, with cold
 cloud tops confined to an area just south of the center. This
 structure is consistent with the 25 to 30 kt of northwesterly
 shear analyzed over the system. The initial intensity remains 45 kt
 based on a blend of the latest subjective and objective Dvorak
 estimates. Overall, the environment is expected to remain marginal
 for intensification for the next 2-3 days due to strong shear from
 the outflow of Tropical Storm Douglas to the west and an upper-level
 trough to the east of Elida. Most of the intensity guidance shows a
 weakening trend through about 72 hours, and this is reflected in the
 official forecast. After that time, there is the possibility for a
 little restrengthening as the shear decreases. The NHC intensity
 forecast is a little above the latest intensity consensus and is
 close to the SHIPS model.
 
 It appears that Elida has moved little over the past few hours,
 with a southward drift seen in the latest geostationary imagery. The
 track model guidance is in reasonable agreement in showing a slow
 southeastward motion during the first 36 hours of the forecast
 period while steering currents remain weak. After that time, a
 mid-level ridge will build to the north of Elida, which should
 induce a steadier westward motion by days 3 through 5. The NHC
 forecast is southeast of the previous one through 48 hours,
 following the latest TVCE multi-model consensus, but is generally
 close to the previous NHC track after that time.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  01/0900Z 17.4N 104.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  01/1800Z 17.4N 104.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  02/0600Z 17.3N 104.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  02/1800Z 17.1N 103.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
  48H  03/0600Z 17.1N 104.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
  72H  04/0600Z 17.2N 105.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
  96H  05/0600Z 17.3N 107.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 120H  06/0600Z 17.5N 110.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brennan
 
 
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