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 176 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 190247
 TCDEP1
 TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062008
 800 PM PDT FRI JUL 18 2008
  
 AN ASCAT OVERPASS RETRIEVED THIS AFTERNOON INDICATED THAT ELIDA
 HAS NOT YET WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THERE REMAINS A SMALL
 AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION JUST TO THE EAST OF THE PARTLY EXPOSED
 CIRCULATION THAT MAY STILL CONTAIN 35 KT WINDS.  CONSEQUENTLY...THE
 INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE CYCLONE
 IS MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS...WHICH ULTIMATELY SHOULD REDUCE ELIDA
 TO A REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS...OR LESS.  THIS WEAKENING IS
 REFLECTED IN THE SHIPS AND LGEM...AND IS THE BASIS FOR
 THE INTENSITY FORECAST.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT A CONSISTENT 280/12...WITHIN THE
 LOW- TO MID-LAYER EASTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL
 RIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR THIS PERSISTENT WESTWARD
 MOTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS INDICATED BY A CONSENSUS
 OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      19/0300Z 18.2N 129.9W    35 KT
  12HR VT     19/1200Z 18.1N 131.6W    30 KT
  24HR VT     20/0000Z 17.9N 134.1W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  36HR VT     20/1200Z 17.7N 136.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  48HR VT     21/0000Z 17.5N 139.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  72HR VT     22/0000Z 17.0N 145.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     23/0000Z 17.0N 151.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 120HR VT     24/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN
  
 
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