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 740 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 181450
 TCDEP1
 TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062008
 800 AM PDT FRI JUL 18 2008
  
 ELIDA IS TRYING TO FIGHT OFF ITS ENCOUNTER WITH COOL SEA-SURFACE
 TEMPERATURES...BUT RECENTLY HAS ONLY BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN A VERY
 SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF THE ESTIMATED LOW-LEVEL
 CENTER.  A BLEND OF THE DVORAK T AND CI NUMBERS YIELDS AN INITIAL
 INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 50 KT...BUT THE INTENSITY TREND IS SHARPLY
 DOWNWARD SINCE THE UNDERLYING WATERS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WILL
 NOT GET ANY WARMER FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 24 HOURS.  BY THAT
 TIME...DEEP CONVECTION MIGHT BE JUST ABOUT GONE.  IT IS DIFFICULT
 TO DETERMINE EXACTLY HOW LONG ELIDA CAN REMAIN A TROPICAL
 CYCLONE...AND LIKE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THE NEW FORECAST CALLS FOR
 THE SYSTEM TO BE A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS...BUT THIS COULD HAPPEN
 SOONER.
 
 THE MOTION REMAINS WESTWARD OR 270/13...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS
 MOTION IS FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE FIVE-DAY PERIOD...AS ELIDA
 REMAINS SOUTH OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  GUIDANCE
 IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE NEW TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
 ONE AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
  
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      18/1500Z 17.6N 127.3W    50 KT
  12HR VT     19/0000Z 17.5N 129.2W    40 KT
  24HR VT     19/1200Z 17.3N 131.7W    35 KT
  36HR VT     20/0000Z 17.1N 134.1W    30 KT
  48HR VT     20/1200Z 16.9N 136.6W    30 KT
  72HR VT     21/1200Z 16.5N 142.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     22/1200Z 16.5N 148.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 120HR VT     23/1200Z 16.5N 155.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KNABB
  
 
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