453
WTPZ41 KNHC 161427
TCDEP1
HURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008
800 AM PDT WED JUL 16 2008
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. THERE IS NO EYE ON INFRARED BUT THERE IS VERY STRONG
CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. DVORAK INTENSITY CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS. A PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION IS ALREADY OVER COOLER WATERS SO A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TONIGHT.
ELIDA CONTINUES SOUTH OF A STRONG AND PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A GENERAL
WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH FIVE DAYS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH TRACK
GUIDANCE WHICH CONTINUE TO FORECAST ELIDA ON A WESTWARD TRACK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 16/1500Z 16.7N 116.8W 75 KT
12HR VT 17/0000Z 17.1N 118.6W 70 KT
24HR VT 17/1200Z 17.5N 121.0W 65 KT
36HR VT 18/0000Z 17.8N 124.0W 60 KT
48HR VT 18/1200Z 18.0N 126.5W 45 KT
72HR VT 19/1200Z 18.0N 131.5W 30 KT
96HR VT 20/1200Z 18.1N 136.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 21/1200Z 18.0N 141.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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