722 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 150254
 TCDEP1
 HURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062008
 800 PM PDT MON JUL 14 2008
  
 THERE HAS BEEN NO HINT OF AN EYE IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
 SINCE THIS AFTERNOON...NOR ANY RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES TO SEE WHAT
 IS GOING ON BENEATH THE CLOUDS.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM
 SAB AND TAFB REMAIN AT T4.5...THEREFORE THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
 KEPT AT 75 KT.  ELIDA CONTINUES ON A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION OR
 275/9 KT.  THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED AS THE
 HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO STAY ON A GENERAL WESTWARD HEADING SOUTH
 OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE.  WHILE THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD
 AGREEMENT ON ELIDA'S FUTURE HEADING...THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE
 MODELS WITH REGARD TO FORWARD SPEED.  THE HWRF AND NOGAPS MAINTAIN
 A STRONGER CYCLONE THAT MOVES FASTER...WHILE THE GFDL SLOWS ELIDA
 DOWN AS IT WEAKENS AND IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE NHC
 TRACK SHOWS DECELERATION AS ELIDA WEAKENS...BUT IT IS NOT AS SLOW
 AS THE GFDL.  THE NEW TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND
 IS CLOSE TO THE 12Z UKMET AND THE TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS.
  
 LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS INDICATED IN THE NEAR-TERM AS ELIDA
 REMAINS OVER SSTS OF AROUND 27 CELSIUS FOR ANOTHER 12-18 HOURS.
 THEREAFTER...SSTS WILL GRADUALLY COOL ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK AND
 MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS
 FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING...FOLLOWED BY A FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING
 LATER IN THE PERIOD.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN GOOD
 AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM PREDICTION.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      15/0300Z 16.0N 110.6W    75 KT
  12HR VT     15/1200Z 16.2N 112.0W    75 KT
  24HR VT     16/0000Z 16.6N 114.1W    70 KT
  36HR VT     16/1200Z 17.0N 116.4W    65 KT
  48HR VT     17/0000Z 17.3N 118.8W    55 KT
  72HR VT     18/0000Z 17.5N 123.5W    45 KT
  96HR VT     19/0000Z 17.5N 127.0W    35 KT
 120HR VT     20/0000Z 17.5N 130.0W    25 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BROWN