105 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 121451
 TCDEP1
 TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062008
 800 AM PDT SAT JUL 12 2008
  
 A TIMELY 1227 UTC SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE HELPED TO DETERMINE THE
 LOCATION OF ELIDA'S CENTER THIS MORNING...WHICH IS NOW EMBEDDED 
 WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION.  ELIDA'S OUTFLOW REMAINS A LITTLE
 RESTRICTED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE...SUGGESTING SOME
 EASTERLY SHEAR REMAINS.  THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN
 DISAGREEMENT THIS MORNING.  THE GFDL AND HWRF SHOW ONLY
 MODEST STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND KEEPS ELIDA BELOW
 HURRICANE STRENGTH.  MEANWHILE...THE SHIPS GUIDANCE PREDICTS STEADY
 STRENGTHENING AND BRINGS THE CYCLONE TO HURRICANE INTENSITY
 IN 36-48 HOURS.    THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE
 SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE AND IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  
 IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION
 GUIDANCE PREDICTS A 33% CHANCE OF 30 KT OR GREATER INTENSIFICATION
 DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE CYCLONE
 IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS AND GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
 PREDICTED.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/14 KT.  ELIDA IS FORECAST TO MOVE
 WEST-NORTHWESTWARD SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER MEXICO.
 THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...EXCEPT FOR
 THE GFS...WHICH SLOWS THE STORM DOWN AS THE MODEL DEVELOPS A
 STRONGER CYCLONE TO THE EAST OF ELIDA.  THIS SOLUTION SEEMS
 UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.  THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS VIRTUALLY
 UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      12/1500Z 13.2N  98.5W    40 KT
  12HR VT     13/0000Z 13.9N 100.2W    45 KT
  24HR VT     13/1200Z 14.8N 102.4W    55 KT
  36HR VT     14/0000Z 15.6N 104.6W    60 KT
  48HR VT     14/1200Z 16.3N 106.8W    65 KT
  72HR VT     15/1200Z 17.3N 110.0W    65 KT
  96HR VT     16/1200Z 18.0N 113.5W    60 KT
 120HR VT     17/1200Z 18.0N 117.0W    50 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BROWN