415 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 120520
 TCDEP1
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062008
 1000 PM PDT FRI JUL 11 2008
 
 CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A NUMBER OF MICROWAVE OVERPASSES
 SUGGEST THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SITUATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES
 SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS ACQUIRED SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED
 CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  A 0015Z
 QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED 30 KT WINDS WITHING THE DEVELOPING SPIRAL
 BAND OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM.  ADDITIONALLY...DVORAK
 T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 35 AND 30 KT RESPECTIVELY.  THE
 INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  DYNAMICAL
 MODELS AND THE SHIPS SHOW THE EASTERLY SHEAR DECREASING AS THE
 CYCLONE TRAVERSES OVER WARM WATERS DURING THE NEXT 3 OF DAYS.
 THROUGH THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THE SYSTEM IS
 EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS.  THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY
 FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE 72 HOUR
 PERIOD...THEN HOLDING AT 60 KT THROUGH DAY 5.
 
 INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 300/14...WITHIN THE LOW TO MID LAYER
 FLOW SOUTH OF A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WESTWARD
 OVER WESTERN MEXICO.  LARGE-SCALE AND HURRICANE MODELS SUGGEST THAT
 THE RIDGE WILL BUILD FURTHER WEST OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AS AN UPPER
 TROUGH OVER THE AREA WEAKENS AND DRIFTS NORTHWEST.  THIS SYNOPTIC
 STEERING PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE THE DEPRESSION TO MOVE IN A GENERAL
 WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST. THE FORECAST
 TRACK IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL MODELS AND THE
 GFS BAMM MID-LAYER MEAN TRAJECTORY MODEL.       
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      12/0500Z 12.3N  96.3W    30 KT
  12HR VT     12/1200Z 13.1N  97.7W    35 KT
  24HR VT     13/0000Z 14.0N 100.1W    40 KT
  36HR VT     13/1200Z 14.8N 102.4W    45 KT
  48HR VT     14/0000Z 15.6N 104.6W    50 KT
  72HR VT     15/0000Z 17.0N 108.5W    60 KT
  96HR VT     16/0000Z 18.0N 112.0W    60 KT
 120HR VT     17/0000Z 18.5N 116.0W    60 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB