143 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 161437
 TCDEP1
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112015
 800 AM PDT SUN AUG 16 2015
 
 Tropical Depression 11-E remains poorly organized with an elongated
 cloud pattern oriented from northwest to southeast, associated with
 a decrease in convective intensity and coverage as well. Although
 the depression barely meets the criteria for a tropical cyclone, a
 blend of available satellite intensity estimates support maintaining
 an intensity of 30 kt for this advisory,
 
 Cirrus outflow has obscured the low-level center, so the initial
 position and motion estimate of 305/15 kt are based on
 extrapolation, continuity with the previous forecast, and two
 recent SSMI and SSMI/S microwave passes that showed a ragged-looking
 inner core. The depression is caught between converging
 southeasterly streamflows associated with a deep-layer anticyclone
 located over the southwestern United States and a mid-/upper-level
 low located about 600 n mi west of the cyclone. The models are in
 excellent agreement on this steering pattern remaining stable for
 the next several days, which should keep the depression moving in a
 northwestward direction until dissipation occurs by 96 hours. The
 official forecast track is essentially just an update of the
 previous advisory track, and lies roughly midway between the
 consensus models TVCE and GFEX.
 
 The deep-layer 850-200 mb wind shear is relatively low, but recent
 UW-CIMSS shear analyses indicate that the depression is moving into
 a region of 15-20 kt southeasterly mid-level shear. The latter
 shear, in conjunction with much drier mid-level air, should cap any
 further intensification, and induce weakening by 24 hours when the
 cyclone moves over sub-26C SSTs. Transition into a remnant low in
 now expected by 36-48 hours, with dissipation forecast to occur by
 day 4, if not sooner. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the
 IVCN intensity model.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  16/1500Z 18.5N 115.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  17/0000Z 19.9N 117.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  17/1200Z 21.8N 120.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
  36H  18/0000Z 23.6N 122.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  18/1200Z 25.3N 125.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  19/1200Z 27.6N 129.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  20/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Stewart