338 
 WTPA41 PHFO 100901
 TCDCP1
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP042015
 1100 PM HST THU JUL 09 2015
  
 LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE 
 SHOWER ACTIVITY AND AREAS OF DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ELA 
 REMAIN WELL DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
 CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION FOR THIS ADVISORY WAS BASED ON A 
 COMBINATION OF POSITION FIXES FROM PHFO AND JTWC ALONG WITH 
 INTERPOLATION OF VISIBLE/INFRARED SATELLITE LOOPS AND A TIMELY 
 WINDSAT MICROWAVE PASS AT 10/0400Z. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF ELA 
 WILL BE KEPT AT 30 KNOTS OR 35 MPH WITH THIS ADVISORY. THE LAST 
 RAPIDSCAT PASS AT 09/1920Z WASN/T DIRECTLY OVER ELA...BUT DID 
 INDICATE A SOLID AREA OF 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS. GIVEN THE TRANSITION 
 OF THE SYSTEM TOWARD POST-TROPICAL...WE DON/T ANTICIPATE THAT WINDS 
 HAVE DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY IF AT ALL FROM THE PREVIOUS 
 ADVISORY...AND THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL FORECAST 
 WINDS FROM BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. 
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION OF ELA IS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 
 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE 
 NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST AS DEEP 
 LAYER RIDGING BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. ADDITIONALLY...WITH
 THE PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF 30+ KNOTS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
 OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS FORECAST BY BOTH THE GFS AND
 ECMWF...ELA WILL BECOME AN INCREASINGLY SHALLOW SYSTEM WITH THE
 REMNANT LOW OR CIRCULATION CENTER GETTING CAUGHT UP IN THE TRADE
 WIND FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST TRACK FOR THIS ADVISORY
 REMAINS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH 24
 HOURS...WITH A BEND TO THE LEFT BEYOND 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM
 BECOMES INCREASINGLY SHALLOW AND GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE TRADE WIND
 FLOW. 
 
 STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR INITIALLY OVER THE SYSTEM IS NEAR 33 
 KNOTS AS INDICATED BY UW-CIMSS...AND CONTINUES TO LEND CREDIBILITY 
 TO THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS SHOWING THE DEEPEST MOISTURE 
 REMAINING WELL DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. BOTH THE 
 GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM 
 STEADILY DECREASING AS DRIER AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO ENTRAIN INTO THE 
 SYSTEM. WITH THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...THE ENTRAINMENT OF 
 DRIER AIR ALOFT WHICH IS ALREADY EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 
 LOOPS...ALONG WITH THE CONTINUATION OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY 
 SHEAR...ELA IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
 DAYS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL SHOW A SLOW AND STEADY WEAKENING 
 WITH ELA BECOMING A POST TROPICAL REMNANT LOW EARLY FRIDAY...AND 
 DISSIPATING BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN VERY 
 CLOSE AGREEMENT TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST...WITH THE SYSTEM 
 DISSIPATING A BIT MORE QUICKLY THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AS A RESULT 
 OF THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  10/0900Z 22.2N 148.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  10/1800Z 22.9N 149.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  24H  11/0600Z 23.4N 151.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  11/1800Z 23.5N 153.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  12/0600Z 23.2N 156.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  13/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
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 FORECASTER JELSEMA/BIRCHARD