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 623 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 300232
 TCDEP3
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082015
 800 PM PDT WED JUL 29 2015
 
 The depression's cloud pattern consists of a swirl of low-level
 clouds with a few small patches of deep convection.  The initial
 intensity remains 30 kt for this advisory, in agreement with a
 Dvorak CI number from TAFB.  North-northwesterly shear and dry air
 continue to affect the cyclone.  Although the shear is expected to
 lessen, even drier air lies ahead of the system.  The global models
 show the depression opening into a trough in a day or so, and the
 official forecast follows that guidance.  The depression could
 become a remnant low before it dissipates if organized deep
 convection does not return soon.
 
 The initial motion estimate is 265/14.  A low- to mid-level
 ridge to the north of the depression should continue to steer the
 cyclone just south of due west until it dissipates.  The NHC track
 forecast is an update of the previous one and lies in the middle of
 the guidance envelope.  This system is expected to cross into the
 Central Pacific Hurricane Center's area of responsibility on
 Thursday.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  30/0300Z 16.6N 137.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  30/1200Z 16.4N 139.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  31/0000Z 16.2N 142.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
  36H  31/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Cangialosi
 
 
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