117 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 280232
 TCDEP3
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082015
 800 PM PDT MON JUL 27 2015
 
 The depression has become somewhat less organized since the last
 advisory.  The center has become exposed to the northwest of an
 amorphous but persistent mass of deep convection.  According to the
 UW-CIMSS shear analyses, the cyclone's appearance is a result of
 northwesterly shear of around 20 kt associated with an upper-level
 trough located to its northeast.  Last-light visible satellite
 images also showed arc clouds on the fringes of the eastern half of
 the circulation, indicative of dry air entrainment.  A satellite
 classification of T2.0 from both SAB at 0000 UTC is used to maintain
 the initial intensity at 30 kt.
 
 Any opportunity for the depression to strengthen is expected to be
 in the very short term.  Water vapor imagery shows the cyclone
 moving into a region dominated by very dry mid- to
 upper-tropospheric air.  The dry air, in combination with lower sea
 surface temperatures and greater atmospheric stability, should
 result in weakening after 24 to 36 hours.  Global models show
 the system opening up into a trough in about 3 days in an
 increasingly unfavorable environment, around the time it crosses
 140W.  Like the previous forecast, this one shows little
 intensification, followed by weakening.  However, dissipation is
 predicted much sooner (by 96 hours) based on the latest guidance.
 
 The initial motion estimate is 290/12.  A low- to mid-level ridge
 over the subtropical eastern Pacific should steer the cyclone on a
 west-northwestward course during the next few days.  The model
 solutions diverge to some degree after 12 to 24 hours, due to
 their handling of the strength of this feature.  The GFS and its
 ensemble mean have a weaker ridge and are farthest north while the
 ECWMF, with a stronger ridge, is on the southern side of the
 guidance envelope.  The new forecast track results in little
 overall change from the previous one and is nearly split between
 the ECMWF and GFS, near the multi-model consensus.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  28/0300Z 16.0N 127.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  28/1200Z 16.4N 128.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  29/0000Z 16.9N 131.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  29/1200Z 17.2N 133.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
  48H  30/0000Z 17.5N 135.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
  72H  31/0000Z 18.0N 141.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
  96H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Kimberlain