704 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 272055
 TCDEP3
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082015
 200 PM PDT MON JUL 27 2015
 
 The low pressure system located more than 1000 n mi west-southwest
 of the Baja California peninsula has finally acquired enough
 persistent deep convection near the center for it to be upgraded to
 a tropical depression.  An 1831 UTC ASCAT-B overpass indicated a
 well-defined circulation center and inner-core wind field containing
 several 30-31 kt surface wind vectors at a distance of 35-40 nmi to
 the northeast and southeast of the center. Although the depression
 is a sheared tropical cyclone, a T2.0/30 kt Dvorak satellite
 classification from TAFB also justifies upgrading the low to a
 tropical depression at this time.
 
 The initial motion estimate is 290/14 kt, which is based primarily
 on microwave and ASCAT satellite fixes.  The NHC model guidance is
 in good agreement on the tropical cyclone moving toward the
 west-northwest at 12-14 kt for the next 72 hours or so due to a
 strong deep-layer ridge locate to its north.  After that, however,
 the guidance diverges significantly with the ECMWF model taking a
 very weak cyclone or trough west-southwestward, the GFS and HWRF
 models moving the system westward, while the GFS-ensemble mean and
 the remainder of the models keep the depression on a slower
 west-northwestward track.  The NHC official forecast track basically
 lies down the middle of the guidance suite throughout the forecast
 period and is close to the consensus model TVCE.
 
 The cyclone is not expected to intensify much due to persistent
 moderate northwesterly vertical wind shear and the cyclone moving
 over marginal sea-surface temperatures after 72 hours.  There will
 also likely be occasional intrusions of drier and more stable air,
 which lies just to the north of the forecast track, into the
 cyclone.  However, the well-established southerly low-level inflow
 of unstable air should help to maintain enough convection to keep
 this system as a tropical cyclone throughout the forecast period.
 The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the ICON consensus model.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  27/2100Z 15.6N 126.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  28/0600Z 16.1N 128.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  28/1800Z 16.6N 130.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  29/0600Z 17.0N 132.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
  48H  29/1800Z 17.3N 134.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
  72H  30/1800Z 17.9N 139.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
  96H  31/1800Z 18.2N 145.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 120H  01/1800Z 18.4N 151.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Stewart