432 
 WTPA43 PHFO 031458
 TCDCP3
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-C DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP082015
 500 AM HST SAT OCT 03 2015
  
 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE 
 LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU HAVE PERSISTED DURING
 THE NIGHT...WITH A LARGE AREA OF VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS TO THE NORTH
 AND NORTHEAST OF THE APPARENT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER /LLCC/.
 AN 0820Z ASCAT PASS LOCATED A REASONABLY WELL-DEFINED LLCC NEAR THE
 SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...AND RECENT 11-3.9 MICRON 
 FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY SHOWS SOME INDICATION OF THE LLCC IN THE SAME 
 AREA. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES CAME IN AT 2.0/30 KT 
 FROM PHFO AND SAB...AND 1.5/25 KT FROM JTWC...AND THE ASCAT PASS 
 DEPICTED A SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF 30 KT WINDS WITHIN THE DEEP 
 CONVECTION NORTH OF THE LLCC. BASED ON THE ABOVE DATA...THIS SYSTEM 
 IS CLASSIFIED AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-C. THIS MARKS THE 
 THIRTEENTH TROPICAL CYCLONE TO EXIST WITHIN THE BASIN SO FAR DURING 
 THE 2015 CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC SEASON.
 
 DATA FROM THE ASCAT PASS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS APPARENTLY
 BEEN DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST DURING THE PAST 24
 HOURS...BUT THIS MOTION APPEARS TO HAVE STOPPED RECENTLY...WITH THE 
 LAST FEW FOG PRODUCT IMAGES SHOWING AN APPARENT SLOW WEST-SOUTHWEST 
 DRIFT. INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 245/03 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS 
 FORECAST TO REMAIN IN AN AREA OF VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW DURING THE 
 NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS...WITH MODEL CONSENSUS DEPICTING A SLOW WEST-
 SOUTHWEST TO WESTWARD DRIFT DURING THIS TIME. A DEEP LAYERED 
 ANTICYCLONE BUILDING WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE NEAR THE 
 INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE SHOULD INDUCE A QUICKER WEST-NORTHWEST 
 MOTION BEYOND 48 HOURS...WITH THE SYSTEM THEN FORECAST TO CONTINUE 
 MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE 
 THROUGH 120 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REPRESENTS A 
 COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...AND IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE 
 TVCN CONSENSUS.
 
 THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND SHIPS DIAGNOSIS INDICATE MODERATE
 SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME. THIS
 SHEAR IS BEING PRODUCED BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WATER
 VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE.
 GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THIS TROUGH TO WEAKEN...BUT ANOTHER UPPER
 LEVEL TROUGH DROPS SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE
 DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND MAINTAINS MODERATE SOUTHERLY WIND
 SHEAR ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. THE CYCLONE MAY MOVE INTO A MORE
 FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AFTER ABOUT 72 HOURS...WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE IS
 FORECAST TO BUILD TO ITS NORTH...BUT EVEN AT THE LATER TIME PERIODS 
 MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW LITTLE INTENSITY CHANGE. THE OFFICIAL 
 FORECAST WILL MAINTAIN EIGHT-C AS A 30 KT DEPRESSION THROUGH 120 
 HOURS...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ICON CONSENSUS.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  03/1500Z 12.0N 171.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  04/0000Z 11.8N 171.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  04/1200Z 11.5N 172.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
  36H  05/0000Z 11.5N 173.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
  48H  05/1200Z 11.8N 174.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
  72H  06/1200Z 13.0N 178.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
  96H  07/1200Z 14.0N 177.0E   30 KT  35 MPH
 120H  08/1200Z 15.5N 171.0E   30 KT  35 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER JACOBSON