035 
 WTNT43 KNHC 010244
 TCDAT3
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082016
 1100 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2016
 
 Deep convection is becoming increasingly dislocated from the center
 of the tropical depression because of the strong westerly vertical
 shear.  Dvorak classifications from SAB and TAFB continue to drop
 as the convection becomes less organized.  The initial intensity
 remains 25 kt.
 
 The tropical depression should not be long for this world.  Last-
 light visible imagery suggests that the center may be becoming
 diffuse. The deep convection may soon either dissipate or be located
 far from the center.  The system may shortly become entangled in a
 frontal boundary.  If the center is no longer well defined, if there
 is no associated organized deep convection, or if the cyclone
 becomes frontal, then the system will no longer be a tropical
 cyclone.  One or more of these options should occur within about a
 day, if not sooner.  In about two days, the post-tropical cyclone is
 likely to be absorbed in a separate extratropical low.
 
 The depression is moving toward the east-northeast at about 14 kt,
 as it is being swept up by the southwesterlies ahead of a
 mid-latitude shortwave trough.  The system should accelerate in the
 same direction until dissipation.  The track is based upon the
 consensus of the reliable global models and is nearly the same as
 that from the previous advisory.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  01/0300Z 36.7N  70.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
  12H  01/1200Z 38.2N  66.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  02/0000Z 40.5N  60.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  36H  02/1200Z 43.0N  54.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  48H  03/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Landsea