395 
 WTNT43 KNHC 312035
 TCDAT3
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082016
 500 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2016
 
 This depression has been a challenging cyclone.  After the earlier
 apparent improvement in the cloud pattern, recent satellite images
 indicate the system has actually become less organized.  While there
 is a broken band in the eastern semicircle, the depression looks
 elongated, with a less well-defined center.  The initial wind speed
 is reduced to 25 kt on this advisory, which is backed up by ASCAT
 data of 20 to 25 kt.
 
 I'm beginning to think that the long-forecast intensification is not
 going to occur with this depression.  Other than persistence, this
 idea is supported by the higher shear values in the recent SHIPS and
 global model guidance.  While I'm not ready to totally abandon any
 strengthening, the new NHC forecast is reduced 5 to 10 kt from
 the previous one and is below the model consensus.  The cyclone
 should become extratropical within 2 days, and be absorbed within a
 larger frontal zone in 3 days.  An alternative, but realistic,
 scenario, is that the cyclone becomes a remnant low tomorrow due to
 marginal environmental conditions causing a lack of organized deep
 convection.
 
 The cyclone is moving northeastward at about 14 kt. It should
 continue to accelerate to the northeast within the southwesterly
 flow ahead of an amplifying mid-latitude trough.  No significant
 change to the previous forecast was made.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  31/2100Z 36.3N  71.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
  12H  01/0600Z 37.7N  69.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  01/1800Z 39.9N  64.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  02/0600Z 42.0N  57.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  48H  02/1800Z 44.0N  51.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  72H  03/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Blake