464 
 WTNT43 KNHC 292051
 TCDAT3
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082016
 500 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016
 
 Satellite and radar images suggest that the depression is becoming
 better organized.  Convection has formed in the northwestern
 quadrant, with some banding features in the northern semicircle of
 the cyclone.  Aircraft data, however, show that the pressure has
 stayed the same as 6 hours ago and the winds have not increased.
 Thus the initial wind speed remains 30 kt.  This burst of convection
 should eventually lead to some intensification as environmental
 factors (less shear and more moisture) are forecast to become a
 little more favorable. Most of the guidance are in good agreement on
 this scenario on gradual intensification, and the latest forecast is
 close to the previous one and the model consensus.
 
 The depression is still moving northwestward at about 6 kt.
 There has been no change to the synoptic reasoning from the last
 advisory cycle. The cyclone should slow down and turn northward
 tomorrow as it reaches a weakness in the subtropical ridge near the
 North Carolina coast.  In about 36 hours, a mid-latitude shortwave
 trough moving through the northeastern United States is forecast to
 erode the ridge and cause the cyclone to recurve northeastward into
 the westerlies.  The latest NHC prediction is very close to the
 previous one, between the model consensus and the GFS model.  The
 cyclone should dissipate or be absorbed within a large extratropical
 cyclone in about 4 days.
 
 Due to the close pass of the cyclone to the Outer Banks, a Tropical
 Storm Warning has been issued for the coast of North Carolina from
 Cape Lookout to Oregon Inlet, including Pamlico Sound.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  29/2100Z 33.6N  74.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  30/0600Z 34.0N  74.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  30/1800Z 34.6N  75.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  31/0600Z 35.4N  74.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
  48H  31/1800Z 36.7N  72.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
  72H  01/1800Z 40.5N  64.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
  96H  02/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Blake