Image Department Meteorology
Meteorology_Home Weather_Server News/Seminars
People
Research
Academics Application Contact_Us

Hawaiian_Weather
US_Mainland_Weather
Tropical_Weather
Satellite_Imagery
Radar_Imagery
Marine
Numerical_Models
LAPS
Forecasts
Observations
Archive
Links Disclaimer
Space
SOEST_Home
University_of_Hawaii_Home

 590 
 WTNT43 KNHC 290855
 TCDAT3
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082016
 500 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016
 
 There has been little change in the structure of the depression
 since the last advisory, as it is comprised of a swirl of low-level
 clouds accompanied by minimal shower activity.  Satellite intensity
 estimates from TAFB and SAB remain 30 kt, so that again is the
 initial intensity for this advisory.  An Air Force Reserve
 Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to investigate the
 cyclone.
 
 The initial motion now is 300/9.  For the next 36-48 hours, the
 depression is expected to move generally northwestward toward a
 weakness in the subtropical ridge near the North Carolina coast.
 After that time, a mid-latitude shortwave trough moving through
 the northeastern United States is forecast to erode the ridge and
 cause the cyclone to recurve northeastward into the westerlies.  The
 track guidance is in good agreement with this scenario, and no
 significant changes have been made to the forecast track through 48
 hours.  After that time, the guidance shows a more eastward motion,
 and the forecast has been nudged to the right of the previous
 forecast.
 
 The dynamical models still forecast the shear to decrease during
 the next 48 hours and for the depression to move into a more moist
 environment.  Based on this, the intensity guidance is showing
 modest strengthening as the system approaches the coast of North
 Carolina.  The intensity forecast also shows some strengthening, but
 it is on the low side of the guidance envelope due to uncertainty
 about whether the environment will become as favorable as the models
 are suggesting, and about whether the cyclone will be able to
 maintain organized convection.  After recurvature, the cyclone is
 forecast to merge with a cold front and dissipate after 72 hours.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  29/0900Z 32.6N  73.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  29/1800Z 33.2N  74.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  30/0600Z 33.8N  75.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  30/1800Z 34.4N  75.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
  48H  31/0600Z 35.4N  74.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
  72H  01/0600Z 38.0N  70.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
  96H  02/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Beven
 
 
Return to the Tropical Systems Page for EIGHT

Back to main Tropical Weather page




This page is maintained voluntarily by the MKWC and the UHMET faculty, staff, and students.
It was last modified on: Thu, Jul 23 2020 - 2003 UTC
Send comments to: Ryan Lyman